Market News Update 17-1

(RJO on grains) Soy market surges to highest level since mid-July on perfect storm of bullish news including heavier than expected weekend rains in S Argentina, respected private sector analyst 4 mmt cut in Arg soy crop to 51 mmt, dollar plunge, strong 2 day Asian protein market rally, Brazil truck strike and Oil World’s slashing of 9/17 US soy stocks.
(Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fund upgraded its growth forecast for China’s economy in 2017 to 6.5 percent, 0.3 percentage points higher than their October forecast, on the back of expectations for continued government stimulus.
(Bloomberg) While the International Monetary Fund expects the US economy to benefit from the financial-policy agenda of the Trump administration, some traders foresee continued wide swings in currency markets due to US and European policies. IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld said policy uncertainty sets up a “wider-than-usual range of upside and down risk factors.”
(Bloomberg) UK Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated she plans a “hard Brexit,” which includes the UK losing access to the EU single market. The situation has prompted financial executives to prepare for the worst-case scenario, which includes moving operations into the eurozone.
(Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fund more than halved its 2017 growth outlook for Brazil, citing weaker-than-expected activity in Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil will grow 0.2 percent this year, compared with a prior forecast of 0.5 percent, the IMF said in an update of its World Economic Outlook. The fund is now more pessimistic than all but three of the 39 analysts Bloomberg surveyed and whose median forecast is 0.8 percent.
(Bloomberg) UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber said executives and policy makers gathering this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos are too gloomy after the recent resurgence of populism around the world. “I’m quite optimistic” about 2017, Weber, the former head of Germany’s Bundesbank, said in an interview Tuesday with Bloomberg TV’s Francine Lacqua. Almost 10 years after the financial crisis, the global economy has stabilized, Weber said. In the U.S., the Trump administration is taking over a “dynamic” labor market that should help set the stage for further growth.

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