(RJO ON GRAINS) Ag markets consolidating following 2 day gains. Sorting out magnitude of Arg soy loss will not be easy given early season nature of heavy rains, loss of planted area and prospects for continuation of above normal rains into Feb.
(Bloomberg) — Oil recovered after the biggest drop in more than a week as industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles declined, while OPEC and other producing nations trim output to ease a global glut. Futures rose as much as 1.4 percent in New York after sliding 2.7 percent on Wednesday amid a surge in the dollar. U.S. crude supplies fell by 5.04 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report. Government data Thursday is also forecast to show a decline. Production cuts by OPEC won’t necessarily trigger a “bonanza” of U.S. shale and other supply, the International Energy Agency said.
(Bloomberg) — As cash continues to flood out of China, expectations are growing that the authorities will erect higher barriers. With the nation’s capital outflows last year estimated at $728 billion by Standard Chartered Plc, and the yuan predicted to continue declining against the dollar in 2017, analysts have been casting forward to what the authorities may do next to stop funds from fleeing.
(Bloomberg) — Donald Trump can’t have both a weaker dollar and protectionist trade policies, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. Trump’s election pledge to bring back jobs and revive U.S. manufacturing will “starve emerging markets of those excess dollars that are outside,” David Bloom, the global head of currency strategy at HSBC, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Yvonne Man in Hong Kong. The greenback will get a boost when investments flow back to the world’s largest economy, he added. “If Trump loosens fiscal policy, which he says he will, that means tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar,” said London-based Bloom. “Trump can’t have a weaker dollar, fiscal policy, higher rates. You just can’t have it all.”
(Bloomberg) — The year-old commodities boom is drawing the attention of some pension and mutual funds that got burned when the last rally fizzled more than five years ago. They want back in. After seeing the first annual return for raw materials since 2010, managers of longterm wealth in funds and endowments are raising stakes in individual markets or broader gauges like the Bloomberg Commodity Index and Standard & Poor’s GSCI, according to Societe Generale SA and Barclays Plc. Big investors are motivated by signs the world has finally escaped from the decade of limp economic growth and inflation that followed the global financial crisis more than eight years ago. Raw materials have surged, with oil prices doubling from their lows and zinc up about 90 percent, providing evidence for some that the rally will last longer than gains reversed in 2011.