US Treasury 10 years 12-5

Suspected Resumed T-Note Bear’s Gotta BEHAVE Like One

Posted on 5/12/2017 7:39 AM by Dave Toth

In 04-May’s Technical Blog following that day’s break below 125.065 we introduced the prospect of a peak/reversal environment that could be major in scope, even resurrecting what we believe is a new secular bear market to eventual new lows below the 122-1/4 multi-year support.  If such a bear has resumed however, it should be expected to BEHAVE like one, evidenced by trendy, impulsive price action down.

The 240-min chart below shows the past week’s latest proof of weakness and vulnerability below late-Apr/early-May 125.06-area support.  This resumed weakness has left Mon’s 125.135 high and 03-May’s 125.265 high in its wake as the latest smaller- and larger-degree corrective highs it now should sustain losses below to maintain a more immediate bearish count.  It’s failure to do so will raise the odds and then confirm the sell-off attempt from 18-Apr’s 126.20 high as a 3-wave and thus corrective affair that would resurrect the larger-degree recovery from Dec’16’s low.  Per such, 125.14 and 125.27 are considered our new short- and longer-term risk parameters from which an

US T 10 year 12-5advised bearish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed.

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