Posted on 7/11/2017 6:35 AM by Dave Toth
Fri’s break below 05-Jul’s 1.2894 initial counter-trend low reaffirms the interim peak/correction count discussed in 05-Jul’s Technical Blog and leaves Thur’s 1.2984 high in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective high the market now needs to sustain losses below to maintain a more immediate bearish count. Its failure to do so will render the sell-off attempt from 30-Jun’s 1.3031 high the 3-wave and thus corrective affair we subjectively believe it to be. In this regard and just below 30-Jun’s 1.3031 high and short-term risk parameter, we believe Thur’s 1.2984 corrective high serves as an even tighter but important risk parameter that, if recouped, could re-expose not only late-Jun’s uptrend, but possibly all of 2017’s bull market to new highs above 1.3050.
The fact that the past week-and-a-half’s sell-off attempt has thus far retraced only a Fibonacci minimum 38.2% of late-Jun’s 1.2589 – 1.3031 rally would reinforce this bull market correction count if the market were able to recoup Thur’s 1.2984 high. In lieu of such 1.2985+ strength however at least the intermediate-term trend remains down and could result in further and possibly steep losses.