Posted on 7/21/2017 7:21 AM by Dave Toth
Yesterday’s accelerated continuation to yet another round of new highs above Tue’s 1.1584 high leaves yesterday’s 1.1479 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low the bear is now minimally required to break below to even defer, let alone threaten 2017’s major reversal/uptrend. In this regard that 1.1479 low is considered our new short-term risk parameters from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy and exposure.
Only a glance at the daily chart below is needed to see that the trend is up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration. ALL levels of any technical merit currently only exist BELOW the market in the forms of former resistance-turned-support like Tue’s 1.1584 high and prior corrective lows like 1.1479 and, on a scale commensurate with this longer-term daily chart, 20-Jun’s larger-degree corrective low at 1.1118, the key risk parameter this market is required to fail below to break 2017’s major uptrend.
The weekly log scale chart above shows this week’s break above May’16’s 1.1617 high that breaks the secular downtrend and confirms our long-term bullish count introduced in 31-Jan-17’s Technical Blog. With the possible exception of Aug’15’s rogue high at 1.1712, this market has virtually no levels of any technical merit above it shy of the former 1.1876-to-1.2042-range that supported this market for years until Jan’15’s meltdown below it that left it as a major new resistance candidate. If there’s a place to be watchful for a bearish divergence in daily or weekly momentum needed to stem 2017’s major uptrend, we believe the 1.19/1.20-area is it. Until such a mo failure of a scale sufficient to buck the clear and present uptrend is confirmed however, further and possibly accelerated gains remain expected.
In sum a full and aggressive bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 1.1479 required for short-term traders with tighter risk profiles to take profits and move to the sidelines in order to circumvent the depths unknown of what would be a suspected correction. Longer-term players are OK to pare bullish exposure to more conservative levels on a failure below 1.1479, but it will take commensurately larger-degree weakness below 1.1118 to break this year’s major bull and warrant their move to a neutral position. In lieu of such weakness we anticipate a continued assault on the 1.19/1.20-area that is approached as a major resistance candidate.