Posted on 8/8/2017 7:51 AM by Dave Toth
SEP 10–Yr T-NOTES
The market’s post-payroll failure below 02-Aug’s 125.31 low and micro risk parameter discussed in Fri morning’s Technical Blogconfirms a bearish divergence in short-term momentum that defines Thur’s 126.15 high as one of developing importance and possibly the end of a 3-wave and thus corrective recovery from 06-Jul’s 124.255 low labeled in the 240-min chart below. The Fibonacci fact that rally from 25-Jul’s 125.155 low spanned a length exactly 0.618-times (i.e. 0.618 progression) early-to-mid-Jul’s preceding 124.255 – 126.12 rally would seem to reinforce at least an interim peak/reversal-threat environment.
As a result of these facts we’re considering Thur’s 126.15 high our new short-term risk parameter from which non-bullish decisions like long-covers and cautious bearish punts can be objectively based and managed by shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.