The new week is a consequential one for treasury markets, featuring three principal inflation measures (CPI, PPI, import prices), in addition to the key retail sales report. Aside from modest positive contributions to all of them from energy, however, we foresee few fireworks. More interesting data could come from the manufacturing reports, including what we think will be a disappointing industrial production release.
Nearly all will be quite on the Fed front, with the only speaker scheduled being FRB Cleveland President Mester (voter, hawk), discussing the economic outlook. She spoke on the same topic a month before, saying she expects GDP to be relatively strong against this year (~2.5%), and that ongoing tightening would allow inflation to move back toward goal without a build-up of macroeconomic risks.