Futuro del peso mexicano 16-2

Market Briefs 
• EUR/USD -0.22 %, USD/JPY 0.04%, GBP/USD -0.23%, EUR/GBP 0.01%
• DXY 0.13%, DAX 0.56%, FTSE 0.68 %, Brent 0.26%, Gold 0.4%
• DE Wholesale Price Index MM Jan, 0.9%, prev -0.3%
• DE Wholesale Price Index YY Jan, 2.0%. prev 1.8%
• GB Retail Sales MM Jan, 0.1%, f’cast 0.5%, prev -1.5%
• GB Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM Jan, 0.1%, f’cast 0.6%, prev -1.6%
• GB Retail Sales YY Jan, 1.6%, f’cast 2.6%, prev 1.4%
• GB Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY Jan, 1.5%, f’cast 2.5%, prev 1.3%
• ECB sees market volatility contained to stocks: Coeure
• Merkel sees good chance of SPD members backing coalition deal
• UK PM May heads to Berlin to face tough German line on Brexit
• Japan policymakers step up warnings over “one-sided” yen gains
• Japan reappoints Kuroda as BOJ chief, picks reflationist academic as deputy
• Uncertainty reigns in final polls ahead of Italy election
• US oil hits 1-wk high as dollar sags; many Asian markets shut
• Gold hits 3-week high as dollar slides to lowest since 2014

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT) 
• 13:30 US Building Permits: Number (Jan) (mkt 1.300 mln, prev 1.300 mln)
• 13:30 US Housing Starts Number MM (Jan) (mkt 1.234 mln, prev 1.192 mln)
• 13:30 US Build Permits: Change MM (Jan) (prev -0.2%)
• 13:30 US House Starts MM: Change (Jan) (prev -8.2%)
• 13:30 US Import Prices MM (Jan) (mkt 0.6%, prev 0.1%)
• 13:30 US Export Prices MM (Jan) (mkt 0.3%, prev -0.1%)
• 13:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MM (Dec) (mkt 0.2%, prev 3.4%)
• 13:30 CA Securities Cdns C$ MM (Dec) (prev -4.59 bln)
• 13:30 CA Securities Foreign C$ MM (Dec) (prev 19.56 bln)
• 15:00 US U Mich Sentiment Prelim (Feb) (mkt 95.5, prev 95.7)
• 15:00 US U Mich Conditions Prelim (Feb) (mkt 112.0, prev 110.5)
• 15:00 US U Mich Expectations Prelim (Feb) (mkt 84.5, prev 86.3)

Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT) 
• 16:45 FedTrade Operation 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $1.015 bn)

Currency Summaries
EUR/USD
• EUR/USD hits new trend high in Asia at 1.2556 then lower in Europe
• Europe opens 1.2549 and heads down slowly reaching 1.2475 before NA
• Dec 2014 high at 1.2570 and 61.8% 1.3995-1.0340 drop 1.2599 are critical
• Techs and momentum favour another stab at this big resistance area
• Corp and option related supply is expected to be heavy 1.2560-1.2600
• Support at Feb 14 high 1.2465, Feb 15 low 1.2449 and 55-HMA 1.2460

USD/JPY 
• USD/JPY broke 106.00 late Asia, stops tripped for 105.55
• Regains 106.00 but stays heavy. Stops sub 105.50, bigger bids pre 105.00
• Option barrriers 105.00-104.00. Break opens full retrace of post Trump rally to 101.95
• DXY possible key to direction – sits on support 50% retrace of the 2011-17 rally at 88.25
• Some verbal intervention today – Fin-Min Aso and a Gov spokesman
• Physical Intervention seems unlikely, given main JPY rise is due to USD weakness
• Cross/JPY losses limited by comparison of late
• BoJ Gov Kuroda reappointed for another term, Amamiya/Wakatabe as DepGovs

CHF
• New trend low for USD/CHF at 0.9188 but good rebound to 0.9227
• Price action shaping up for a reversal: candle techs potential hammer
• A close on the week at or close to 0.9220 open to complete bull candle
• Initial retrace off the 0.9470-0.9188 drop comes at 0.9255, 0.9227 session high
• EUR/CHF heavy but still lacking flow and bearish conviction
• New 1.1512 pullback low below the 10DMA from a 1.1545 high
• Stocks looking firm and higher USD/CHF likely to feed into the cross late Frid

GBP 
• GBP/USD lower 1.4145-1.4108 ahead of UK retail sales data
• Jan sales 0.1% mm/1.6% yy vs 0.5%/2.6% f/cs [nL9N0FN02Q]
• GBP/USD initially unmoved then eases to 1.4066 together with wider USD rise
• Sterling more broadly unchanged today. EUR/GBP 0.8888-67 range
• GBP/USD support at 21-DMA 1.4030. 200-MMA at 1.4369 key above
• GBP 400mln vanilla option expires at both 1.4000 and 1.4100 today

USD/CAD
• USD off worst now to aid support
• 1.2488 todays high, Thurs high and daily cloud base 1.2536/55 resistance

AUD/USD 
• Extends recovery to 0.7988, offers pre 0.8000, backs off since
• USD slide stalls for now, DXY sits on key 0.8825 50% of 2011-2017 rise
• Resistance from 61.8% of 0.8136/0.7759 move at 0.7992
• Pull from 2bln 0.7950 expiry 10am NY cut today
• NZD/USD reaches 0.7437 from 0.7390, Mild USD recovery caps

Larger FX option expires Friday Feb 16 
• EUR/USD: 1.2400-25 93.5BLN), 1.2450-65 (1BLN), 1.2500 (2BLN)
• 1.2515-25 (916M), 1.2550 (1BLN)
• EUR/SEK: 9.80 (1BLN). USD/CHF: 0.9375 (720M), 0.9400 (210M)
• GBP/USD: 1.4000 (378M), 1.4100 (419M). EUR/GBP: 0.8860 (369M)
• AUD/USD: 0.7850 (3.8BLN), 0.7950 (2BLN). 0.8050 (1BLN)
• NZD/USD: 0.7200 (450M). USD/CAD: 1.2470-75 (458M), 1.2500 (381M), 1.2600 (448M)
• USD/JPY: 107.00 (1BLN). EUR/JPY: 133.00 (325M). AUD/JPY: 85.00 (231M)

COMMENTS

Rand off its high and now the reality check
USD/ZAR may well trickle down and exceed our 11.50 target, especially with a close under the monthly ichimoku cloud likely, but a reality check might slow the Rand’s advance near term. The Rand breathes easier as nine years of Zuma control end but now the hard work begins for the ANC. ANC leader, Cyril Ramaphosa was officially sworn in as president Thursday after a lengthy deadlock with former president Jacob Zuma. A tough but generally optimistic and fruitful period for investors, but now the heavy political policy lifting begins. Ramaphosa has pledged to fight corruption and bring investors back to South Africa. The new president will deliver the state of the nation address at 1700GMT Friday and his rhetoric on growth and corruption will be watched closely as the public, rating agencies and investors will no doubt be courted with promises. The Rand has been riding the Ramaphosa wave since mid-November, up near 21% vs the USD, 10-year S.A bond yields are down around 140-bps and stocks have put on just under 10% in February and 5% Thursday alone. USD/ZAR Monthly Chart:

EUR/USD Large 1.26-1.27 barriers key to 1.30 door
EUR/USD traded to a new 3-year high at 1.2556 today amid continued USD weakness but further gains are likely to be hard fought given major resistances now close by. The setback from the previous 3-year high at 1.2538 (25 Jan) saw the options market buying good amounts of 1-month expiry EUR call RKO structures – the right to buy EUR call vanilla options, as long as attached triggers are still intact at expiry. These triggers were mostly placed at 1.2700 but talk since suggests that 1.2600 also featured prominently and is thus likely to be defended (expiries late Feb). Recent vanilla option flows have mostly been short-dated strikes looking for EUR/USD to remain within 1.21-1.2600 near-term. Strong technical resistance 1.2570-00 is likely to encourage top-picking. That said, moves over 1.2600 and especially 1.2700, may lead to a quick extension to 1.3000+ as current option coverage looks extremely light (see below) exacerbating the impact of buy stops above triggers/barriers and any short-covering. Existing EUR/USD option coverage

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