Fed Chair Jay Powell’s first congressional testimony on Tuesday sparked a solid round of dollar buying and this has further to run as the market perceived his comments to be more hawkish than expected. Powell’s comments contributed to the fifth largest USD daily recovery of the year on Tuesday. The February 2018 to January 2019 Fed Funds calendar spread shows three rate hikes are almost fully priced in for the rest of 2018, underpinning the dollar recovery.
The USD index revival from the 2018 88.251 base has scope to continue and USD bulls are expected to take the market to the 30-day upper Bollinger band currently at 90.823. There is even potential for a test of the major 90.886 Fibonacci level — 38.2% retrace of the 95.150 to 88.251 (October to February) decline. Fourteen-day momentum remains positive, this has been the case since Feb 20 but traders should watch this as a negative reading will warn that the recovery is running out of steam.
bstops 534 / sstops 526