Futuro del peso mexicano 18-6

Several EM central banks meet this week.  The brewing trade war provides a poor global backdrop for EM.  Brazil, Mexico, and the Philippines are expected to hike rates in support of their respective currencies.  Failure to do so would likely lead to sharp losses.  Hungary is starting to get concerned about forint weakness but is not expected to move this week.  Taiwan and Thailand are in the fortunate camp where currency weakness and inflationary pressures are limited, and so are in no hurry to hike rates this week.
Banco de Mexico meets Thursday and is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 7.75%. Mexico reports mid-June CPI Friday, which is expected to rise 4.59% y/y vs. 4.46% in mid-May.  If so, inflation would continue moving away from the 2-4% target range after several months of heading towards it.
476= 100 HMA
478.60= 200 HMA
Futuro del peso mexicano 18 - 6

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