Futuro del peso mexicano 31-7

 

  • USD/MXN opens NY 17.80 dips a touch to 17.78; o/n range 17.8140-17.7475
  • /Matching MXN flows light o/n, No. Korea/Japan tension shrugged off
  • Safe havens, gold, JPY & USTs near ‘unched’, MX Q2 GDP at 9AM– 2.8% pvs
  • USD/MXN supt 17.7806 10-HMA, 17.7475 Mon low, 17.6351 200-HMA
  • Res 21-DMA at 17.8152, 17.8445 Fri high, 17.9282 50% of 17.45-18.4065 rise
  • 1-mos 25RR dips a touch remains positive;

futuro del peso mexicano 31-7

 

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FX Market Update 27-7

Market Briefs

• EUR/USD -0.15%, USD/JPY +0.17%, GBP/USD +0.24%, EUR/GBP -0.39%
• DXY -0.11%, DAX -0.55%, FTSE -0.01%, Brent +0.29%, Gold +0.17%
• DE Aug Gfk consumer sentiment, 10.8% vs f’cast 10.6%, prev 10.6%
• GB Jul CBI distributive trends, +22 vs f’cast 10, prev 12
• Britain to scrap Libor rate benchmark from end-2021
• EZ Jun Loans to Non-fin, 2.1%, prev 2.4%
• EZ Jun Loans to households, 2.6%, prev 2.6%
• EZ Jun Money-M3 annual growth, 5.0% vs f’cast 5.0%, prev 5.0%
• China factory sector seen maintaining solid growth in July
• China industrial profits jump most in 3 months, weather higher financing costs
• China economic outlook bright, prudent monetary policy to continue – senior official
• Japan’s life insurers curb enthusiasm for foreign bonds – Nikkei
• MoF flow data week-ended July 22 – Japanese again good buyers of foreign bonds
• Net Y1.1786 trln bought, adds to large buys previous week, stocks bought too
• Foreign investors buy net Y292.4 bln Japanese stocks, adds to buys previous wk
• Oil prices hover near 8-week highs on lower U.S inventories
• Gold rises to six-week high as dollar drops after Fed statement

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

• N/A Atlanta Fed GDP Now (Q2) (prev +2.5% q/q AR)
• 12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Jul 22) (mkt 241k, prev 233k)
• 12:30 Continued Claims (w/e Jul 15) (mkt 1.950 mln, prev 1.977 mln)
• 12:30 Durable Goods Orders (Jun) (mkt +3.0% m/m, prev -0.8% m/m)
• 12:30 Durable Goods Orders ex-Trans (Jun) (mkt +0.4% m/m, prev +0.3% m/m)
• 12:30 Durable Goods Orders ex-Defense (Jun) (prev -0.3% m/m)
• 12:30 Core Capital Goods Orders (Jun) (mkt +0.3%, prev +0.2% m/m)
• 12:30 Advance Goods Trade Balance (Jun) (prev advance -$65.9 bln)
• 12:30 Advance Wholesale Inventories (Jun) (prev advance +0.3% m/m)
• 12:30 Advance Retail Inventories (Jun) (prev advance +0.6% m/m)
• 12:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun) (prev -0.26)
• 12:30 Revised Building Permits (Jun) (as reported 1.254 mn SAAR, +7.4% m/m)
• 15:00 KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) (prev 11)

Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 13:45 FedTrade operation 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $1.575 bn)
• 18:30 FedTrade operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.1 bn)
• 19:00 New York Fed publishes tentative agency MBS operation schedule for period beginning July 28

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD

• Dovish turn in Fed expectations and DC political uncertainty weighing on USD
• ECB Nowotny comments Wed’s helped EUR, post FED rally peaks 1.1777 Asia
• Setback based at Tues prior hi 1.1712, now support. Fri/Mon lows 1.1684-83
• 2.5bln 1.1700 expiries today/Friday underpin. Barriers reside 1.18, 1.19, 1.20
• Barriers mostly RKO attached to long EUR calls – many shorter date expiries
• Key bull focus 200WMA 1.1797 – close above Friday reinforces 1.20 target

USD/JPY

• USD/JPY near 111.25-32 NY cut expiries worth 1.5B & cloud top 111.26
• There are said to be large Japanese bids ahead of 110.00
• Talk non Japanese spec accounts sold USD/JPY to 111.00 in Asia
• Model stops below 111.00 were triggered, more stops clustered sub 110.70
• Recall USD/JPY dropped from 111.27 to hit 110.79, ahead of recovery to 111.43
• Risk for squeeze higher, but 200-DMA @112.12 like to cap

EUR/CHF

• EUR/CHF breaks 1.1200 barriers during the European am
• 1.12 = high water-mark for cross since SNB scrapped 1.20 floor Jan 2015
• “Risk on” weighing on safe-haven CHF: VIX tested 1993 low Wednesday
• Swiss franc attractive as funding currency for carry trades
• German consumer morale up to 16-year high, EUR-positive
• 1.1365, 1.15 & 1.18 among EUR/CHF bull targets

GBP/USD

• 1.3124 = low water-mark for cable since 10mth high of 1.3157 in Asia
• 1.3124 approximates to last week’s high (1.3120 = Wednesday’s high)
• Ascent to 1.3157 fuelled by USD selling after dovish Fed statement
• Offers expected near 1.3200 (option barrier level)
• 1.3100 (option expiry level), 1.3084 (Monday’s high) & 1.3067 supports
• BoE MPA next week: 6-2 or 5-3 vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.25% expected

USD/CAD

• 1.2458 = high water-mark for USD/CAD since 1.2415 revisited in Asia
• 1.2415 was Wednesday’s 25mth low after USD sold on dovish Fed
• Recovery rally from Wednesday’s low topped out at 1.2463
• 1.2458/63 levels reside either side of May 2016 low (1.2461)
• Dovish shift in Fed expectations contrasts with hawkish BoC expectations
• 48% probability of another BoC 25bp rate hike Sept 6-BOCWATCH/Eikon

AUD/USD

• AUD/USD retreat to threaten 0.8014 influenced by profit-taking on longs
• 0.8014 = Wednesday’s high. 0.8066 was 26mth high in Asia
• Bids expectedd around 0.8000 (former key resistance) if retreat extends

NZD/USD

• 0.7524 = low water-mark for NZD/USD since 26mth peak of 0.7557 in Asia
• Ascent to 0.7557 fuelled by greenback selling on dovish Fed statement
• Fonterra raises forecast for farmgate milk prices to NZD 6.75/kg from 6.50

FX OPTIONS

• EUR/USD vols/calls firm as dealers position for further EUR/USD gains
• EUR/CHF vols/calls boosted by this weeks spot gains and 1.12 barrier break
• USD/JPY vols only marginally higher as broader ranges hold. Barriers below
• AUD vol demand falters as follow through above 0.80 barrier lacks impetus
• Cable 1wk vol higher on MPC capture/spot upleg, 1mth stagnates at 7.0

CHART

EUR/USD bulls eye 1.2167 Fibo

EUR/USD bulls are setting their sights on 1.2167–50% Fibonacci of the 1.3995-1.30540 drop (2014-2017) after taking out 1.1736, the 38.2% retrace of the same fall to hit a new 2017 high at 1.1777. The task for bulls now is to register a close above the 1.1736 at the end of July to pave the way to that 1.2167 level. EUR/USD is persistently trading well above the 30-month upper Bolli band currently at 1.1595 level, an unusual pattern which is indicative of a market heading to a new equilibrium. Fourteen-month momentum is likely to register a positive reading for the first month since January, highlighting the bullish outlook. If the market fails to register a monthly close above 1.1736, this will suggest that medium-term bulls are running out of steam

FX Market Update 26-7

Market Briefs

• EUR/USD -0.17%, USD/JPY -0.04%, GBP/USD -0.08%, EUR/GBP -0.06%
• DXY +0.14%, DAX +0.45%, FTSE +0.65%, Brent +0.54%, Gold -0.21%
• GB Q2 GDP Prelim y/y, 1.7% vs f’cast 1.7%, prev 2.0%
• GB Jun BBA Mortgage Approvals, 40.200k, prev 40.347k rvsd 40.287k
• Fed expected to leave rates unchanged; balance sheet in focus
• UK’s Hammond says cannot be complacent about growth
• Banks dealing EU sovereign debt may be dragged out of London
• Vital for Greece to keep up reforms to secure debt market access -IMF
• Brawl over Obamacare repeal returns to U.S. Senate floor
• BOJ’s Nakaso: Japanese firms avoiding price hikes now but sentiment is changing
• China to convert all giant state companies into joint-stock firms by end-2017
• Oil prices rise as falling U.S. inventories stoke rebalancing hopes
• Gold drifts lower as dollar firms ahead of Fed

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

• 11:00 US MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Indices
• 14:00 US New Home Sales (Jun) (mkt 0.615 mln, prev 0.610 mln)
• 14:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 13:00 FOMC resumes two-day meeting
• 18:00 FOMC Statement

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD

• EUR/USD 1.1653-33 range in Asia after setback from Tues 1.1712 peak
• Mild USD recovery weighs, breaks Fri 1.1619 low early London for 1.1613
• Wider 10yr US/DE spreads, DXY nears Fri’s 94.357 hi vs 93.638 Tue
• Some talk of stops 1.1590-80. 1.1572 support – 38.2% June low to Tues hi
• Recovery to 1.1640 helped by the rally in EUR/CHF
• Expiries today 1.1600 (619M). 1.1650 (519M), 1.1700 (523M)

USD/JPY

• USD/JPY range has been 111.78-112.08
• Technical outlook mixed, but resolute 112.10 supply
• Japanese exporters are said to have decent offers above 112.00
• Note that the 200-DMA, currently @112.09, is also capping USD/JPY
• Talk that there are decent bids circa 111.70/75, from recent short-covering
• Said to option-related bids too below the market around 111.50
• BoJ DepGov Nakaso – Will pursue current easy policy till CPI target met
• Prices recently weak but turnaround soon, weak JPY helps, mantra unchanged
• Japan June corp service prices +0.8% y/y, +0.8% y/y last four months

EUR/CHF

• EUR/CHF rose from 1.1080 to 1.1106 during the European am
• 1.1106 = new 13mth high. Cross rose to threaten 1.11 after Ifo beat Tuesday
• CHF attractive as funding currency for carry trades (VIX sub-10)

GBP/USD

• Cable fell to 1.3008 after UK Q2 GDP matched 0.3% f/c at 0830GMT
• 1.3042 was pre-data release high vs 1.3000 early Ldn intra-day low
• 1.3000 = low water-mark since Tuesday’s 1wk high of 1.3084
• 1.3000 option expiry for NY cut, GBP 300mn strike
• More 1.3000 optioin expiries Thursday & Friday, GBP 1.5bln strikes
• EUR/GBP fell to 0.8914 (six-day low) pre-UK Q2 GDP data

USD/CAD

• Meagre 15 pip range for USD/CAD during European am, 1.2504-1.2519
• Loss consolidation is big-picture story: 1.2481 = Tuesday’s 14mth low
• Recent CAD gains influenced by expectations of another BoC rate hike
• 37% probability of BoC 25bp hike to 1.0% Sept 6-BOCWATCH on Eikon

AUD/USD

• AUD/USD elicited support pre-0.7875 after extending south early Europe
• 0.7875 = July 21 low. Drop to threaten 0.7875 on sub-f/c Aussie CPI & Lowe
• 0.7906 is high since 0.7875 threatened. 0.7900/10 option expiries for NY cut
• AUD 647mn strikes. More 0.7900 expiries thru month-end, AUD 1.19bln strikes

NZD/USD

• NZD/USD elicited fresh support pre-0.7400 after easing from 0.7436
• 0.7410 = early Europe low. 0.7436 was Asia high. 0.7405 = late NY low
• 0.7402 = Tuesday low after NZ detected 1st cases of bacterial cattle disease
• 0.7400 option expiry Thursday, NZD 182mn strike

FX OPTIONS

• EUR/USD vols off Tues highs. 3mth rolls over Oct ECB to underpin
• O/n vol premiums on the low side in to tonights FOMC
• GBP focus on very large 1.3000 expiries. Implied vols look heavy
• USD/JPY vols heavy but supported pre FOMC. AUD vols sold today
• EUR/CHF vols/EUR calls firmer with spot en route to post floor hi 1.12

CHART

USD/JPY 112.10 level tough to crack

USD/JPY outlook is mixed, with the recovery stalling so far at 112.08, matching last Friday’s high. The daily tenkan line at 112.10 continues to weigh heavily on the market and this level will be tough to crack as it is also the 38.2% retrace of the 114.49 to 110.62 fall. In addition, the 200-DMA adds to supply as it is currently residing at 112.09. While USD/JPY bears should be mindful of Monday’s doji and the failure below the daily cloud which currently spans 110.64-111.26, the risk is still a negative skew. The “cloud twist” on Aug 3 below the market circa 111.37 will likely act as a magnet, meaning the overall expectation remains marginally on the downside. A break and daily close above 112.10, and more importantly 112.56 which is the kijun line and 50% retrace of the same 114.49 to 110.62 fall, will delay the downtrend

Futuro del peso mexicano 26-7

  • USD/MXN opens NY 17.7200, v Tues close 17,7650; o/n range 17.8020-17.72
  • Pair remains firm at 17.75 ahead of US FOMC, shrugs off recent commod rally
  • Fed exp’d to keep rates/QE steady, mkt eyes hints at BS paring, rate hike path
  • USD/MXN sup 17.72 Wed low, 17.6757 23.6% of 18.4065-17.45/ Tues low
  • Res17.8154 38.2% Fib, 17.8559 21-DMA, 17.9400 3rd daily pivot
  • Despite rise in spot 1-mos vol remains low
100 HMA=561.50
200HMA= 562.60
Futuro del peso mexicano 26-7

FX Market Update 25-7

 Market Briefs

• EUR/USD +0.11%, USD/JPY +0.32%, GBP/USD -0.12%, EUR/GBP +0.24%
• DXY +0.04%, DAX +0.49%, FTSE +0.92%, Brent +1.01%, Gold -0.36%
• DE Jul Ifo Business climate, 116.0 vs f’cast 114.9, prev 115.1 rvsd 115.2
• DE Jul Ifo Current conditions, 125.4 vs f’cast 123.8, prev 124.1 rvsd 124.2
• DE Jul Ifo Expectations, 107.3 vs f’cast 106.5, prev 106.8
• DE Import prices y/y, 2.5% vs f’cast 2.9%, prev 4.1%
• Strong euro no impediment to German economy – Ifo economist
• GB Jul CBI Trends- orders, 10 vs f’cast 11, prev 16
• UK inflation expectations edge lower in July – Citi/YouGov
• ECB’S Mersch says the ongoing economic expansion in the euro area provides confidence
• Greece on right reform path, but needs to keep “pedalling” – Moscovici
• PM Abe advisor Hamada favors reappointment of BoJ Gov Kuroda – Nikkei
• BoJ Policy Board June 15-16 meeting minutes – Most agreed need to remain easy
• 2% inflation target still distant, some noted importance of explaining exit
• BOJ newcomers back 2 pct price goal, say too early to debate stimulus exit
• Oil extends gains as Saudi pledges export curbs
• Gold steadies ahead of Fed meeting as dollar sags

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

• 12:30 Philadelphia Fed Non-manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Jul) (prev 28.0)
• 12:55 US Redbook Same-Store Sales Index (weekly) (prev +2.0% y/y)
• 13:00 US FHFA House Price Index (May) (prev +6.8% y/y)
• 13:00 S&P/Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (May) (mkt +5.8% y/y, prev +5.7% y/y)
• 14:00 US Consumer Confidence (Jul) (mkt 116.5, prev 118.9)
• 14:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) (prev 7)
• 14:00 US Richmond Fed Services Index (Jul) (prev 19)

Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 15:45 FedTrade operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.1 bn)
• 17:00 FOMC begins two-day meeting

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD

• EUR/USD opened London in 1.1650’s, Asia range 1.1631-69
• Traded 1.1650-68 after better than f/cast German IFO
• Pair settles back at 1.1650 since, 1.2bln 1.1645-50 option expiry contains
• Mon’s 1.1684 peak and defence of 1.1700 barriers likely holds pre FOMC
• Daily lows underpin – today 1.1631, Mon 1.1626 and Fri 1.1619
• Option vols steady pre FED, risk reversals favour more EUR gains

USD/JPY

• USD/JPY has risen from 110.83-111.46, risk growing for 112.00
• Build up of bids below 111.00, esp from Japanese names, gathers pace
• Talk interesting Japanese names joining the bid in size in USD/JPY
• Also ongoing rumour about semi-official name with bids, we are skeptical
• Some bids near 110.83 session low, note daily cloud comes in @110.80
• General talk of bids growing all way down to 110.00 barriers
• Market not so short gamma into or below 110.00 barriers as it was last week

EUR/CHF

• EUR/CHF up to 1.1042 intra-day high after German IFO beat at 0800GMT
• IFO chief Fuest said “sentiment among German businesses is euphoric”
• Le Temps-Jordan says at 1.10, CHF still significantly overvalued vs EUR
• EUR/CHF scaled 13mth peak of 1.1088 last week. 1.1009 = subsequent low
• 1.12 = high water-mark for cross since SNB scrapped 1.20 floor in Jan 2015
• 1.2664 = mid-point of EUR/CHF lifetime range of 0.8500-1.6828

GBP/USD

• Mooted offers around 1.3050 are helping to keep a lid on cable
• 1.3042 = early Europe high. 1.3058 was Monday’s high
• Bids are tipped circa 1.3000 (1.2990 was Monday’s low)
• Cumulative GBP 1.5bln of 1.3000 option expiries Thursday/Friday
• 0.8956 = European am high for EUR/GBP after German IFO beat
• M&A news: Michael Kors has agreed to buy Jimmy Choo for USD 1.2bln

USD/CAD

• USD/CAD rallied to 1.2526 after threatening 1.2484 early Europe
• 1.2484 was Monday’s 14mth low. 1.2523 was rally high from 1.2484
• CAD continues to benefit from expectations of another BoC rate hike in Oct
• US political uncertainty is helping weigh on the USD
• Another USD/CAD option barrie mooted at 1.2450 (1.2461 = May 2016 low)
• Large 1.2500 option expiry at end of next week (Aug 4), USD 1bln strike

AUD/USD

• AUD met European am headwind pre-0.7950 after extending north from 0.7903
• 0.7903 = Asia low. More offers tipped ahead of 0.80 (option barrier level)
• Canadian name went long at 0.7920 Monday, stop 0.7850, target 0.8080

NZD/USD

• NZD met early Europe headwind at 0.7450 after extending north from 0.7402
• 0.7402 was Asia low after NZ detected first cases of bacterial cattle disease
• 0.7455 was Monday’s high. 0.7460 was 10mth high last Friday
• ‘Looking at the stars’ speech from RBNZ McDermott slated for 2015GMT

FX OPTIONS

• EUR/USD risk reversals pricing more EUR gains ahead. 3mth risk rev 8yr hi
• USD/JPY vols rich vs realised, 1mth support at 7.5 could attract post FED
• GBP vols underperform realised, not helped by large 1.30 expiries
• Very high premiums for AUD gamma, CPI and Lowe Wed, RBA next Tues
• CAD vols yet to ease but look rich as spot settles around 1.2500

CHART

USD/ZAR set to fall, lower Bolli beckons

There’s growing risk USD/ZAR will fall to the 30-day lower Bolli band at 12.6543 as the seven day consolidation phase after the sharp drop from July’s 13.6250 looks set to end. The 10- and 30-day moving averages negative cross highlights the fragile state of the market, with the increasingly negative 14-day momentum readings reinforcing the bearish bias. Immediate supply at last Thursday’s 13.0650 peak which should stem near-term corrective moves. The upside will likely be bound by 13.1569 which is 38.2% retrace of the 13.6250 to 12.8675 July fall. If bulls manage to register a daily close above 13.1569, this will keep the lower 30-day Bolli at bay