Futuro del peso mexicano 5-12


  • USD/MXN opens NorAm 20.6125, off Asia high 20.74, o/n range 20.74-20.61
  • Italy vote has little effect on glbl marts, fallout contained to Italy bks
  • Focus shifts to US/Mex CB meets; hikes exp’d CME:
  • USD/MXN res 20.6575 hrly cloud base, 20.7266 upper 21-h Bolli, 20.74 Mon hi
  • Sup 38.2% (20.5873)/50% (20.50) Fib of 20.13-20.87 rise, 21-DMA (20.3556)
  • MXN vol up slight pre CB meet
  • MPZ 100 HMA= 483.30

Futuro del peso mexicano 29-11

  • USD/MXN opens NY 20.6735 drifts higher, o/n range 20.71-20.5750
  • USD bid ahead of US NFP Friday, Austrian election/Italian referendum this w/e
  • US data at 8.30AM Q3 GDP & PCE prices (prelim), 10AM cons confidence
  • USD/MXN supt 20.6638 10-HMA, 20.5706 10-DMA, 20.6025 daily pivot
  • Resistance 20.7064 upper 21-h Bolli, 20.7625 50% Fib of 21.935-20.13
  • ST vol, includes Fed/Banxico remains bid;

EURO/USD 28-11

The market’s failure overnight to sustain recent losses below 22-Nov’s 1.0658 minor corrective high and our short-term risk parameter has confirmed a bullish divergence in momentum as detailed in the 240-min chart below.  This defines last week’s 1.0518 low as one of developing importance and our new short-term parameter from which the risk of non-bearish decisions like short-covers can be objectively based and managed.

While the fact that this admittedly short-term momentum failure stems from the extreme lower recesses of the 2-YEAR range cannot be ignored as one that could lead to a more surprising rebound, we believe the magnitude of the past 7-month downtrend from 03-May’s 1.1617 high warrants first approaching any rebound as another correction within this downtrend ahead of an eventual resumption of it to new multi-year lows below Mar’15’s 1.0462 low.  Indeed, the merely lateral price action from that 1.0462 low and fact that it retraced only a Fibonacci minimum 38.2% of 2014-15’s 1.3993 – 1.0462-portion of the secular bear is about as good an example of a correction/consolidation as one can find and warns of an eventual resumption of the secular downtrend that preceded it.  The extent and impulsiveness of Oct-Nov’s slide would also seem to reinforce this bearish count.

These issues considered, shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles have been advised to neutralize bearish exposure in order to circumvent the heights unknown of what we believe is only an interim corrective hiccup ahead of a resumption of the secular bear trend to eventual new lows below 2015’s 1.0462 low.  A relapse below 1.0518 will confirm this call and expose a run at that key 1.0462 low and levels potentially well below it.  Longer-term players remain advised to maintain a bearish policy and exposure with strength above at least former 1.08-handle-area support-turned-resistance and preferably 04-Nov’s 1.1140 larger-degree corrective high and key long-term risk parameter required to threaten or negate this call.


Futuro del peso mexicano 28-11

  • USD/MXN opens NorAm 20.59 hovers nearby, o/n range 20.6850-20.5390
  • MXN gains despite risk off tone, equities/UST yields lwr, Oil bid
  • Big wk for US data, Q3 GDP, prelim core PCE Tues, NFP Fri (Rtrs f/c +175k)
  • USD/MXN supt 20.5249 by 10-DMA, 20.4963 200-HMA, 20.4610 daily Tenkan
  • Res 20.5707 10-HMA, 20.6663 hrly cloud base, 20.6817 daily pivot
  • Mex ST vol off elex highs remains bid


Futuro del peso mexicano 23-11

  • USD/MXN opens NorAm 20.67, dips slightly to 20.64; o/n range 20.6870-20.56
  • Flows light heading into US holiday, risk CCYs (LayAms/CNH) offered, oil flat
  • Mex Q3 GDP & QIR in focus, US Fed mins 2PM EST, Dec hike odds 93% (CME)
  • USD/MXN res 20.6875 Wed high, 20.7625 dly Tenkan line, 20.9118- 61.8% Fib
  • Support 20.5732 rising 21-HMA, 20.56 Wed low, 20.5025 daily pivot
  • 1-mos vol includes Fed/Banxico dips slightly