S-T Mo Failure Tilts 10-Yr Rates Higher Within Correction-vs-Reversal Debat

UST Note 10 Years - 16-8Posted on 8/16/2017 8:18 AM by Dave Toth

While the market has yet to fail below our short-term risk parameter defined by 08-Aug’s 125.29 corrective low in the Sep contract, this week’s rebound in actual 10-yr yields confirms a bullish divergence in short-term momentum that arguably contributes to a broader base/reversal count in rates and peak/reversal count in the contract.  Furthermore, the relapse from Fri’s 126.28 high below 10-Aug’s 126.06 minor corrective low is enough to identify last week’s 126.28 high as one of developing importance and a more reliable level from which non-bullish decisions like long-covers and cautious bearish punts can be objectively based and managed.

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